Rogers has been a willing points-scorer, but the underlying numbers have cooled and Villa’s fixture swing is unkind. Gordon offers the opposite: a softening run and an xGI trending up four weeks straight.
At a near-identical price, the model projects +7 points over the next three gameweeks for the swap — enough to clear a −4 hit twice over if you are not sitting on a free transfer.
If you can wait for the free transfer, do; the edge holds. But this is the rare move that grades out positive even on a hit.